Is the Luna/Terra debacle the beginning of the end for crypto?
It was a dramatic week for crypto as one of the most successful Layer 1 protocols, LUNA/UST, collapsed with ~ $50bil in value lost (see chart). While the financial media is once again claiming the end of the sector, the LUNA debacle is likely to be a net positive for the digital asset space.
It was a dramatic week for crypto as one of the most successful Layer 1 protocols, LUNA/UST, collapsed with ~ $50bil in value lost (see chart). While the financial media is once again claiming the end of the sector, the LUNA debacle is likely to be a net positive for the digital asset space. It goes to show how what is mistakenly labeled as “crypto” actually includes wildly different assets and investment cases. Comparing a “fiat” stablecoin, whose peg to the USD is predicated on audited reserves held in a regulated bank, and an algorithmic stablecoin like UST is like comparing the empire state building to a treehouse; they may both be considered as “human dwelling” but that is where the similarity ends.
More importantly, as previously opined on these posts (https://lnkd.in/gJJXzDZp), participants are starting to understand the inherent difference between the investment case for Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets. On a basic level BTC is a ”put” option on the fiat money system. As participants lose confidence in the system, BTC’s adoption as a store of value grows and its investment thesis is automatically fulfilled by virtue of its mathematically capped supply and a truly decentralized network. That is not the case with other crypto assets as they are typically ”call” options on the success of a specific platform. As such, investment in crypto ”ex-BTC” should be treated as venture capital (“VC”); small position relative to a total portfolio and careful diversification across projects/start ups. More importantly, as in VC, investors should prepared to see most of their investments go to zero with only few companies surviving and few delivering outsized returns.
The future of investing is investing in the future and the digital assets sector will continue to thrive and deliver generational returns to to discriminant investors, in spite of the LUNA/UST disaster. Disclosure: Hold all assets mentioned. Not investment advice. Do your own research.