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July 25, 2022 • The future level of #inflation is a key variable for asset prices and many analysts believe the current elevated reading will be short-lived. The CPI chart tells another story as the descending long-term trend has been violated as the US and most other economies are facing the worst inflation since the 1980s. The drift toward #deglobalization may help to explain what's ahead.
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July 18, 2022 • The #usdollar index (#DXY) is up 11% YTD and the strongest in almost 20 years. Or is it? The reality is rather different. The DXY is simply a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six other currencies. The USD is therefore benchmarked against currencies whose countries are experiencing serious economic, political and financial disruption.
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July 11, 2022 • The #euro keeps depreciating and the parity with the USD is approaching (see chart). It is not surprising as while #inflation keeps rising the #eurozone (EZ) still has negative rates. It is terrible news for the monetary union as a weaker euro makes the price of commodities more expensive and therefore aggravates the already serious inflation problem.
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July 4, 2022 • VIX is currently at 26.7 and far from the level that would signal a final capitulation. There seems to be way too much complacency in equities at the moment. Why such a lack of fear?
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June 27, 2022 • #raydalio is the founder of Bridgewater, one of the largest and most successful hedge funds. He recently wrote a piece maintaining that #stagflation is upon us. The signs pointing to such an outcome have been visible for at least a year.
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June 20, 2022 • "How far can the Fed go into tightening financial conditions?" is the #1 question for global investors today and some "First Principle" thinking may be useful to address it.
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June 13, 2022 • It has been a difficult year for equities and the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has dipped below its 20 yrs average. Does it mean that equities are attractively valued? Probably not if the "Rule of 20" is to be taken into account.
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June 6, 2022 • Gold has lost almost 10% since its March 8 recent high and some investors may be disheartened. They should not be if the bigger picture is considered.
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May 29, 2022 • TIPs (Inflation protected US treasuries) "breakevens" are the most widely followed measure of inflation expectations. They appear to have peaked at 3.6% last March and have been declining since. Yet commodity prices have been dastardly elevated and making new highs. The divergence is puzzling as rising commodity prices would typically feed into higher inflation ahead.
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May 16, 2022 • It was a dramatic week for crypto as one of the most successful Layer 1 protocols, LUNA/UST, collapsed with ~ $50bil in value lost (see chart). While the financial media is once again claiming the end of the sector, the LUNA debacle is likely to be a net positive for the digital asset space.
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May 9, 2022 • Currency volatility is often a harbinger of major credit events. It may be the case for the Eurozone as the EURUSD broke down the uptrend established since the launch of the currency
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May 2, 2022 • Should the economy continue to weaken, the Fed may decide to stop far sooner than the ~ 2.5% in fed funds rate that the credit market is pricing in. Some deceleration in CPI would also provide additional cover. Should policymakers tilt dovish, we will see an impressive rally in US treasuries, especially on the long end of the yield that has experienced one of the worst, and fastest, declines on record.
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The Weekly Opinions are concise and data-driven observations pointing to key current issues in financial markets. The premium monthly Swerve Insights are thought pieces articulated into two sections: a monthly macro update and a specific investment idea. All delivered in a concise package to help you stay ahead in the financial landscape of today and to get inspired with new ideas and opportunities.
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