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macro

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  • Recession or higher structural inflation?

    January 31, 2022 • This is in essence the dilemma facing the Federal reserve. Most banks & analysts have been predicting the worst; 1.5-3% increase of fed fund rates and even a reduction of the balance sheet. Such a scenario would ravage asset prices and curtail economic growth, leading an already slowing economy into recession. 
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  • Contrary to conventional wisdom, the equity & bond markets are telling us exactly the same story

    March 30, 2019 • The key to understand that we live in a world where asset prices are now primarily driven by policy. 
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