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  • The time to invest in commodities was last year

    April 25, 2022 • Over the last few weeks ​virtually ​every investment house has jumped on the ​commodity bandwagon. The Ukraine war and persistent inflation have brought to the forefront what has been for years one of the most underinvested themes. Yet, as opined ​several times ​on these posts, the time to deploy capital was last year as a combination of ​obdurate ​inflation, ESG and geopolitics w​ere already arguing a strong case for ​energy and materials.  
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  • Property & equities at times of inflation

    April 18, 2022 • Conventional wisdom has it that property and equities are good inflation hedges. Data show otherwise. Let's take property; in the last 15 years since the 2007 top, US residential market prices have increased 40% and failed to offset the 41.3% inflation over the same timeframe. 
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  • Lower PE multiples ahead?

    April 11, 2022 • C19 & Ukraine may have set up the stage for a secular repricing of equities. From 2009 to 2021, ever-easier financial conditions brought no real consumer inflation but only new asset bubbles. The conditions are now in reverse as higher interest rates, inflation and supply side constraints are bound to depress valuations. 
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  • The 60/40 strategy is no longer viable

    April 4, 2022 • The 60/40 portfolio is one of the most widely used ​investment strategies ​is already down almost 6% YTD (see chart) and may no longer work. The ​principle ​of holding 60% of the portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is based on the belief that the two asset classes are inversely correlated​, i.e. bonds would go up when equities decline and vice versa​. 
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  • European equities: the lost two decades

    March 21, 2022 • European equities return over the last twenty years was an abysmal 3.9% vs 282% for the S&P 500 (see chart). The next decade looks, if anything, even more problematic as the Ukraine war delivers continental Europe a severe economic, financial and geopolitical blow. 
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  • Three scenarios for the S&P 500

    March 14, 2022 • The S&P 500 is down 12% YTD and more losses are likely before a bottom is in place. The extent of further decline will be a function of three variables; monetary policy, economic conditions and geopolitics. While these variables are, to a degree, correlated, policy is likely to be the predominant factor in the near future. 
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  • The risk of deplatforming Russia

    March 7, 2022 • You can’t forcibly remove a G20 country from the global financial system without expecting serious repercussions for all participants. Over a week or so, approximately a trillion dollars in Russian reserves, equities and bonds have effectively disappeared from the system. Europe and the Eurozone are most at risk and markets have responded accordingly by wiping off all 2021’s gains.  
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  • Gold breakout!

    February 14, 2022 • Gold seems to have broken out of its descending pattern started in August 2020. While the movement could be ascribed to geopolitical instability, the simpler and more compelling narrative is that the investment case for storeholds of value keeps getting stronger as inflation and debt debasement takes center stage. 
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  • Highest​ inflation since the launch of the Euro​

    February 7, 2022 • The ​January ​euro-area inflation was a shocker, with the CPI the ​highest​ ever since the launch of the Euro​. Energy was the biggest driver, but the core CPI surprised to the upside as well​, signaling the issue is far from "temporary".​ 
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  • Recession or higher structural inflation?

    January 31, 2022 • This is in essence the dilemma facing the Federal reserve. Most banks & analysts have been predicting the worst; 1.5-3% increase of fed fund rates and even a reduction of the balance sheet. Such a scenario would ravage asset prices and curtail economic growth, leading an already slowing economy into recession. 
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  • “Smart” money piling up into Venture Capital

    January 10, 2022 • As the future returns of cash, bonds and equities are looking increasingly dubious, institutions and HNWIs are betting that earlier stage investment into technology is holding the key to a more attractive outcome. 
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  • Bitcoin & Crypto; a forecast for 2022

    December 31, 2021 • As one of the few assets that may effectively hedge against the demise of the current fiat monetary system, the investment case for BTC is fundamentally macro-based. 
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    The Weekly Opinions are concise and data-driven observations pointing to key current issues in financial markets. The premium monthly Swerve Insights are thought pieces articulated into two sections: a monthly macro update and a specific investment idea. All delivered in a concise package to help you stay ahead in the financial landscape of today and to get inspired with new ideas and opportunities.

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